November 19, 2006
Update on the next-gen console battles
I just want to put down my thoughts as to where I think the major players stand as of today.
Microsoft / Xbox 360
Gears of War
With a full year head-start (although a tight launch), the 360 has been in plentiful supply for most of 2006. It currently sells for $299 for the gimped sans-hard drive version and $399 for the proper 20gb HD version.
MS has a huge hit on their hands with Epic's Gears of War, which is the first game to knock Halo 2 from the top of the Xbox Live Most Played list (no small feat). That fact that Halo 2 (an orginal Xbox title) was until this week the most played game on Xbox Live speaks to a lack of a killer app for the 360, for all the time it has been out. Gears of War (GoW) is an impressive, truly next-gen gaming experience, to be sure. I loved the campaign, and the multiplayer is tons of fun. Call of Duty 2 and Ghost Recon: Advanced Warfighter (also excellent) were the only other titles to really come close to GoW's success till now. I would have hoped that there would have been more must-have titles on shelves by now, but there are some hugely anticipated titles coming down there wire. Among them are Capcom's surprisingly slick Lost Planet, Bioware's Mass Effect, Rockstar's GTA4 and of course MS's own
Recent breakdowns of the latest component prices, put MS actually making money on each console sold, which bucks the current trend in video game economics.
Xbox Live continues to be refined and expanded, with the recently announced HD movie rental downloads, and other video content for sale. Xbox Live Arcade has had several hits on their hands, and MS has been experimenting and tweaking the pricing for small game purchases and microtransactions over the year. They have a very solid platform in place, and have rolled out six major revisions to the network in its 4 year lifespan. It will be hard for the other consoles to just catch up with what MS has put together here.
Sony / PS3
Resistance: Fall of Man
The PS3 is out, though in extremely limited numbers. Fetching upwards of $2,500 per console on eBay, it's probably going to be March or so before you will be able to walk into a store and drop $599 on the full 60gb PS3 ($499 for the 20GB version).
Sony will sell tons of these no doubt, and the number one position is theirs to lose. The challenge for them is that since the last generation (Xbox/PS2/Gamecube), the game software market has changed. Sony used to have exclusive platform-selling franchises that fueled their brand loyalty (think Grand Theft Auto, Metal Gear, etc). But by the end of the last cycle, game developers were making version of their games for all the consoles, and started to move away from the exclusivity deals of the past. MS announced that Grand Theft Auto 4 is going to land on the 360 next fall, (likely on the PS3 as well at the same time) with exclusive episodic content via Xbox Live. Ubisoft's much anticipated Assasin's Creed will be hitting both the PS3 and the 360. Personally, the only titles I'd be pining for is whatever comes next from the minds behind Shadow of the Colossus and Ico. Those were some of the best titles on the platform (with Katamari Damacy a close second).
Their online network does not charge you to play online, which a nice contrast to Xbox Live, but the proof will be in the pudding as to whether the network will be free of cheats and exploits.
Sony is reportedly losing up to $250 per console sold at launch, due to the high cost of the new BluRay high-def DVD player and the Cell processor. This is no small point. Sony has had a devastating year with an expensive laptop battery recall, and the delay of the PS3 launch is going to hurt them a lot, as they wont feel the full benefit of the holiday season with so few consoles in the pipeline. If BluRay flops, or any other nasty surprises hit Sony, it could get very, very ugly.
As for the reaction to Sony's launch titles, Resistance: Fall of Man has been getting good reviews, but people cant help but saying that it doesn't look quite as nice as Gears of War. Of course, the games coming out this time next year will surely improve in quality, but right now, there is no "must have" system seller that will make people NEED a PS3.
Regarding the BluRay (or HD-DVD for that matter), I think Sony and the other electronics manufacturers are in for an unpleasant surprise when it comes to their next gen DVD formats. As more ways become available to download HD content (satellite, cable, internet) and with HD DVR's out there already, the prospect of shelling out for an expensive new player, and new discs to buy becomes far less attractive. Sure it's nice that the PS3 comes with a BluRay player, but does that translate into Sony dominating a new format for the next 10 years? Hardly, and I think when you consider that regular DVD's look pretty damn nice on most HD sets under 50", I 'll be t that people are in no rush to upgrade their DVD libraries.
Ninendo / Wii
Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess
Nintendo is definitely in a better place this time around with their innovative $249 Wii console. It truly offers an alternative path forward in what the gaming experience can be like. I can't wait to get my hands one and try out the feel of the controller. I'm sure plenty of coolness will come out on the Wii during it's lifespan, though I don't seeing it as being at the forefront of the battle. It will certainly eat into some of Sony's share, as you can pick up a Wii, and a 360 for less than the cost of a full PS3. Parents aren't gonna be plopping down $600 so easily, and kids will have a better chance of getting a Wii for Christmas, as they will be in good supply right from launch. Also worth noting is how Nintendo's DS TROUNCED Sony's PSP in the handheld market and outsells it by 3 to 1 according to NPD's September sales stats. Nintendo also probably has the best chance at growing their potential market past the regular gamers, and out into the rest of the general public.
In Conclusion
All in all, it's going to be a fascinating year watching these juggernauts duke it out. The best part of all this of course, is that the gaming consumer wins. Things to watch over the next year:
-How does the Sony online network hold up to cheats / hacks?
MS has spent a ton of time working on this, and I am doubtful Sony will be able to build as robust a network as MS has done. If the network can't deliver, game over. Online gaming is a MUST HAVE component that is useless when spoiled by cheaters.
- Will MS's HD video marketplace on Xbox Live take off? What will the pricing be?
If they hit a fair price (unlikely) they may have a killer feature that trumps the BluRay / HD-DVD.
- Will MS's XNA homebrew gaming kit yield any interesting indie games that take off?
If MS is able to tap into a pool of new innovative ideas from a new indie gaming community for deployment (and cash) on Xbox Live, they could really shift the direction of things to come...
- Will Nintendo's Wii controller be truly embraced by the major developers?
I fear that the major developers are going to just release ports on the Wii, with one or two things unique to the controller, as we're seeing in some of the announced titles so far. I hope people make games JUST for the Wii, that really make the controller worth it.
I 'll give an update in a few months to see where things stand.
Posted by keegan at 12:41 PM
November 03, 2005
More thoughts on the next-gen console battles...
Well it's been a few months since the players in the console arena have shown the first hints of their next-generation plans. In fact, Microsoft is just about 3 weeks from actually launching their Xbox 360. Sony has not shown one frame of actual gameplay footage yet for their PS3, and all that Nintendo has shown is it's very cool innovative controller.
Obviously the focus is on MS versus Sony. The battle appears to be gearing up for the showdown of the juggernauts. Specs have been leaked about, tales of unimaginable processor power whispered on message boards...But several factors are going to give MS an insurmountable lead in this upcoming battle, and I think secure them a top spot.
1. Time - This is the most obvious advantage. MS has consoles in boxes waiting at stores as we speak. Games are ready to go. Sony has a lot of slick pre-rendered footage, and not much else. Having just played my first PS2 game in a while (the amazing Shadow of the Colossus) I wasn't prepared for how bad the PS2 is looking these days. The idea that people will be playing this old black box for the next seven months or so while milions of shiny new white 360s are sitting in store windows down the street makes me think that MANY people will want in on this. For a while, I thnk the 360 will be a bit of a curiosity- I'm not planning on getting one for a while. My Xbox works fine, and most importantly, I can still play Halo 2 and it looks great. But having the 360 out there as the latest greatest thing, especially through the holidays is gonna steal some SERIOUS mindshare. And I direct you to the Joystiq article below for the clincher: By the time the PS3 comes out, MS will be able to slash the price on the 360, coming in at potentially HALF the price of the PS3, and by then the game library will be filling up nicely.
2. Online - Apparently Sony has made some comments recently confirming my suspicions: there is no planned Sony answer to Xbox Live. All the game companies will be responsible for any kind of online gaming. This is a disaster for Sony. As MS is rolling out it's SECOND generation online gaming network, Sony is leaving you on your own online, as well as misssing out on untold millions from gaming subscriptions. MS makes $50 per year per Xbox LIve account, which will be much more key to the whole Xbox experience this time around. So MS is basically getting you to pay another $50 for your console, and you are happy to do it (I happen to think it's one of the greatest entertainment values that I have spent my money on the past few years).
3. BlueRay - As the great article on Joystiq below calls attention to, the PS3 is gonna cost Sony a LOT more to manufacture than the Xbox360. Not only is Sony's fabled "Cell" processor more expensive, but they plan on launching thier high definition BlueRay optical drive standard in each PS3. These will be among the very first drives available. They will add a lot of extra cost to these consoles, and MS is just using a plain old DVD drive. MS may eventually add some sort of HD-DVD combo drive to the 360 (if BlueRay doesnt win the HD format war, which I'm sure it will), but it's not gonna matter much by then. Sure I'd love a cool new HD optical drive in my game console, but mainly, I want a good game console with good games. Anything else that comes with it is gravy.
Other Issues -
Many many game developers are comfortable with MS's developer tools for the 360, and they seem to be winning alot of people over to their simpler game development environment. Rumors of the PS3 cell being very hard to write for are spreading everywhere, and could prevent a lot of Sony exclusive titles.
And let's not forget the biggest card MS has up it's sleeve: Halo. The hype surrounding the Halo franchise will reach unimaginable levels as the movie gets deep into production, and word of the next Halo game comes forth. This will be a inter-media buzz firestorm that marketers dream of. This is right in the Star Wars/Lord of the Rings sweetspot. I can't really think of a singular property that Sony has to move boxes out the door. Solid Snake? The cars of Gran Turismo? I just don't see an answer to Master Chief. Well, maybe the little pill fella from Katamari Damacy...Or his father the King of the Universe..."ROYAL RAINBOW!!!"
Joystiq: Xbox 360 could cost only half PS3’s price by 2006
Posted by keegan at 02:19 AM
May 31, 2005
Gamer's Manifesto
Not that all of my posts are going to be game-related, but this is too good to pass up. A Gamer's Manifesto, which lists 20 valid gripes with the gaming industry as it stands today. I can't wait to play Matlock on Xbox Live...
Link: A Gamer's Manifesto
Posted by keegan at 01:35 AM
May 15, 2005
Thoughts on Xbox360 / Next gen consoles
Well Microsoft has given us a glimpse of the Xbox 360. My first impression is positive.
Hardware? The guts of the machine are all there. I also love that since the machine is running customized multi-core IBM chips, the developer kits are all Power Mac G5's. Any demos seen at E3, won't be running on the final chips since I'm betting they aren't ready yet. Love the wireless controllers. That's a must have. My current Xbox controller wires look like stringy, twisted intestines. Also good about built in WiFi, and obviously all games in high-definition is huge. So hardware wise, good stuff.
The graphics? Im sure the things we'll see at E3 will be very pretty, very crisp, lots of soft glowiness and lots of special effects, but I don't know if they will truly register in my mind as "next generation". By the end of the 360's life cycle, I may be saying that they do look in fact next generation, as it takes forever till they can squeeze every bit of power out of the hardware. Halo 2 is a great example. That game just defies what you thought was possible on a 733mhz Pentium 3 (also I do have to give props to Splinter Cell: Chaos Theory...also rather pretty). I'm assuming the graphics will feel like just a bit better than what we have now on the very latest xbox games, but 60fps-smoothness at high-definition, all nicely anti-aliased.
The games? Well there was the notorious omission of two key pieces of information.
1. Halo related property: Halo 2.5? Halo 3? I think we'll have to wait a
while for word on this unfortunately. This is a big deal. This is MS's system-seller.
2. Backwards Compatibility: Can I play all my original xbox game son this beast? I better be able to. I really don't want to have to cram another box under my TV shelf, and rewire it all..One box to rule them all.. The games I did see glimpses of looked pretty good, although there just wasn't much to see. All the Tom Clancy stuff will be amazing, Gears of War looked really good, I never really got into Perfect Dark on the N64, as it was right at the end of the cycle, and I kind of switched over to playing UT on my Mac. I think they will have a slow start without a Halo title. I can't even get psyched about it yet...
Overall master plan? Very good. I think Xbox Live is the iPod of the gaming world today. And it's just gonna get better. It's such a contrast to the whole Sony strategy of "we'll give you an ethernet port, you handle the rest". I love being able to send a game invite to my brother when he's online, if he were ever playing anything but Halo 2. So the 360 having very good Live support for free right out of the box is brilliant. I dunno if they will be able to spawn this mini-economy of people buying and selling customized game content, but we'll see. I think they do have a chance to knock Sony off the pedestal, but it will be a long, bloody battle. MS does have the momentum right now, and time to get some good titles out before the PS3 launches. The other thing I think that will keep MS chugging along is the ease of development. I remember during the lead-up to the PS2 launch, seeing these game conference announcements of translated Sony executives talking up the PS2's "Emotion Engine", and how it would allow for game characters to have lifelike emotions, among other abstract features. I don't remember encountering any of that in SSX or Grand Theft Auto. I do remember hearing about how hard it was for developers to tap these powerful vector processors that the PS2 had. MS is spending a TON on XNA, which seems to be a huge play to consolidate all the efforts of PC game developers to deploy across all platforms easily. Smart move, and I think it will keep the PS3's enigmatic IBM-designed processor known hilariously as "the Cell", on par with the 360's power, as that will be the baseline developers will write to. Sony will have a few knockout 1st party games, but the bulk will look about the same on both.
Wildcards? Nintendo. Still huge innovators in the game world, I totally respect their place in the field. I do hope they have a few tricks up their sleeve, as talk of 3D games (as in with a stereographic headset of some sort) sounds very cool.
I'll update this post-E3 to see where we're at.
POST-E3 UPDATE: Well Sony has show their cards, Nintendo didn't show much, and the stage is set for a huge multi-billion dollar war for the hearts, minds (and wallets) of the gamer. Sony's PS3 looks really amazing. The demos that I saw truly did feel like a jump to next-generation, where some of the Xbox 360's did not. Specifically, Killzone 2, Mobile Suit Gundam, Fight Night 3 and the strange yet incredible Andrew Molina technology demo where some of the PS3 highlights. There has been a lot of speculation that the most spectacular PS3 demo- Killzone 2, was pre-rendered. If this was the case, Sony will have a major bungle on their hands. I still stand by my earlier statement that the vast majority of games will look equally great on both consoles, and the difference will be if the games are actually fun to play, and what the online experience will be like. MS has a huge advantage online, and Sony didn't lay out any new plans in this area. Many unknown factors could affect the outcome of this whole abttle. Pricing, delays and features being dropped could deal a death-blow to either company. And of course the world will eventuially get a glimpse of Halo 3, which could change the balance quite a bit.
PS3 Video clips:
- Killzone 2
- Mobile Suit Gundam
- The Getaway (Tech demo)
- Fight Night 3
- Sony Tech Demos (includes Andrew Molina)
Xbox 360 Video clips:
- Ghost Recon 3
- Gears of War
- Xbox 360 Games Roundup
Posted by keegan at 02:11 AM